可转债周度追踪：以结构为重-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. Investors share the returns of the equity market by betting on passive tools. Driven by the equity market and the inflow of fixed - income funds, the convertible bond index has reached a new high. At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. Potential opportunities can be explored from three aspects: "anti - involution", underlying stock elasticity, and dividend allocation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 转债周度思考 - In the past week, after adjustments, both the equity market and the convertible bond market rose again, and the convertible bond index reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3600 points, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73% in the past week, and the underlying stock equal - weighted index of convertible bonds rose 3.00%. The median price of convertible bonds has exceeded 130 yuan, and the valuations of equity - like and balanced convertible bonds continue to expand [2]. - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. The share of two convertible bond ETFs has rapidly increased, with a 27% month - on - month increase compared to the end of June, and the scale has exceeded 5.72 billion yuan. Considering that some active funds are also making index - based layouts, the scale of index - based investment tools is expected to exceed 6.5 billion yuan. The holders of ETFs are mainly absolute - return funds such as banks and insurance companies, which invest in convertible bond ETFs to share the equity market's upward trend since late June and enhance returns by increasing positions in convertible bond indices [2]. - At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. Although the equity market is generally expected to be in a slow - bull state with a relatively low possibility of a large - scale pullback, the high point of the equity market within the year is unclear. After this round of increase, the price center of convertible bonds has generally risen, and the median has exceeded 130 yuan. With the continuous inflow of funds, the valuation has also been stretched. For some individual bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan price range that have risen with the market, the current median conversion premium rate is 40%, and the investment cost - effectiveness is average. Under the condition that the fundamentals of individual bonds cannot change significantly in the short term and the call - at - par - value - at - 130 clause is in place, the anti - decline and protective properties of these convertible bonds with a higher price center and premium rate have weakened significantly [2]. - After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. The state of convertible bonds in a relatively mild stock - bond market remains unchanged, and there are still opportunities for convertible bonds to perform. Since July, the number of callable convertible bonds has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction of convertible bonds still exists, which supports the valuation and performance of convertible bonds. Absolute - return funds can take partial profits or adjust the structure while keeping the overall position unchanged. It is recommended to explore opportunities along three lines: (1) Pay attention to industries where some backward production capacities are being cleared as "anti - involution" progresses in various industries; (2) Focus on equity - like and balanced convertible bonds with high - volatility and low - premium underlying stocks. Industries such as electronics and semiconductors are expected to experience marginal recovery due to tariff easing, and innovative drug convertible bond targets are scarce; (3) The allocation value of dividend assets remains high, and low - volatility bottom - position convertible bonds are worth attention [2]. 3.2 2 可转债市场跟踪 3.2.1 2.1 可转债行情方面 - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, since July, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 2.60% in the past week, 6.81% since July, and 21.79% in the past year [12]. 3.2.2 2.2 转债个券方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.3 2.3 转债估值方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.4 2.4 转债价格方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title.