地方债周度跟踪：发行开始降速，近期流动性下降-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and it is expected that both will continue to decline significantly next period. The current local government bond spread - hunting market may be approaching its end [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (August 4 - 10, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 165.459 billion yuan and had a net financing of 82.848 billion yuan (compared with 337.175 billion yuan and 243.062 billion yuan in the previous period). Next period (August 11 - 17, 2025), the expected issuance is 91.432 billion yuan and the net financing is - 13.736 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.23 years, shorter than 14.39 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 68.2% and 63.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 71.9% and 63.9%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 56.1%/46.2% and 58.3%/49.2%, and in 2023 it was 68.7%/66.7% and 70.4%/67.7% [2][18]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from August to September 2025 totals 163.88 billion yuan, with new special bonds amounting to 96.93 billion yuan. As of August 8, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance, with 96.33 billion yuan in August and 67.55 billion yuan in September [2][22]. - This period, 4.03 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of August 8, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 79.54 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 188.18 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 94.1% [2][20]. 3.2 This period, the spread between 10 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened, the spread of 30 - year bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis - As of August 8, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 13.09BP and 14.00BP respectively, widening by 0.68BP and narrowing by 0.10BP compared with August 1, 2025. They were at the 14.90% and 55.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.57%, a week - on - week decrease from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Anhui, and Sichuan were better than the national average [2].