产业经济周观点：关注资本市场定价和经济发展的关系-20250810

Group 1 - The logic of capital market pricing will change with economic development, shifting from a focus on dividend pricing to supply pricing due to the anti-involution development model [3][15] - After the price recovery in China, there is a positive impact on employment, although it may suppress output; the key focus is whether export prices can continue to improve [3][15] - Supply-driven price recovery is more favorable for asset price increases, with short-term price fluctuations having a minor impact on the capital market [3][15] Group 2 - The report is optimistic about non-bank sectors, low PB industries, military industry, and self-controlled technology companies [3][15] - There is a positive outlook on innovative chips, technology leaders under institutional heavy positions, the茅指数, AI applications, and tin metal [3][15] Group 3 - The anti-involution policy has shown initial effectiveness, with July PPI decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [8] - In July, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of acceleration [11][15] - The strong performance of exports to the EU, India, and South Korea is noted, while exports to the US and ASEAN showed a significant decline [13][15]