固收专题：把握票息与利差压缩的“鱼尾”行情

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The credit bond market this week showed characteristics of "the end of spread compression, intensified liquidity stratification, and the initial appearance of policy disturbances." The market oscillated between policy expectations and capital - market fluctuations, with institutional behavior shifting from being dominated by trading desks to being supported by allocation desks. The strategy suggests seizing the "tail - end" market opportunities. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - Central Bank's Reverse Repo Operations: From August 4th to 8th, 2025, the central bank had a net回笼 of 41 billion yuan in the first half - week and then conducted a 70 - billion - yuan outright reverse repo on Friday, switching to a net injection of 16.35 billion yuan for the whole week. This operation balanced government bond supply, tax - period disturbances, and financial stability while leaving room for subsequent policy tool innovation. [2] - Credit Bond Issuance and Yield Changes - Primary Market: From August 4th to 8th, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous week. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 188 billion yuan; the net financing was 240.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 186 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term was 3.36 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 years, and the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29 percentage points. [2] - Secondary Market: The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased week - on - week, with the turnover rate of general credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year slightly increasing, and that of other maturities significantly decreasing. The turnover rate of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also decreased, possibly due to some institutions shifting to AA - and below - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. [3] - Yield and Spread: As of August 8th, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, and perpetual bonds of AAA - rated bonds at various maturities all decreased week - on - week. Credit spreads across the board compressed, with 1 - year - term spreads decreasing by 3 - 5BP, 3 - year - term spreads decreasing by 1 - 4BP, and 5 - year - term spreads decreasing by 2 - 3BP. [3] - Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: The yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased across the board this week, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better. The spreads of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties decreased less. [4] - Regional and Industry Analysis: Most provincial urban investment bond spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP, with Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Qinghai having the largest decreases of 6 - 7BP. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds widened slightly this week, with the AA - rated steel industry having the largest spread widening of 5.5BP. [4] Credit Strategy - Suggest focusing on the sinking opportunities of 2 - 3 - year AA/AA - rated urban investment bonds and short - term varieties in the steel industry. For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, currently, the 3 - 5Y large - bank capital bonds have good liquidity, and capital gains can be gambled on. [5]