国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Expected to trade in a narrow range. Mine - end support weakens, and smelting - end logic limits price elasticity. Long - term low - cost supply may impact the cost curve, but short - term prices are difficult to fall deeply yet face an upper limit. Consider interval trading and double - sell option strategies [4]. - Stainless Steel: Intensified multi - short battle, with prices expected to oscillate. Bulls focus on inventory decline and policy uncertainties, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuation [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Short - term trend follows coking coal. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the market may follow coking coal, but the fundamental trend is downward [28][32]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment cools down, and there is a callback drive. Policy factors dominate, and short - term prices may decline. The market is expected to be volatile in the third quarter [28][34]. - Lithium Carbonate: The shutdown of Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. Before overseas supply fills the gap, prices will remain upward. Otherwise, pay attention to project resumption [54][56]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 yuan/ton. The inventory of refined nickel in China decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [6][7][13]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [5][8][13]. Supply and Demand - Nickel: Mine - end support weakens, and long - term low - cost supply may change the cost curve. The inventory of nickel pig iron decreased marginally, and the price was revised upwards [4]. - Stainless Steel: The supply side has some structural production cuts, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. However, the actual supply elasticity and high inventory still limit price increases [5]. Market News - Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; and Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial Silicon: The futures price was 8,710 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia's 99 - grade silicon prices decreased [28]. - Polysilicon: The futures price closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, rising first and then falling. The spot market showed no significant improvement [28]. Supply and Demand - Industrial Silicon: Supply increased as factories in the southwest and northwest resumed production. The industry inventory shifted from destocking to restocking [29]. - Polysilicon: Supply increased as some factories resumed production, and the upstream inventory started to accumulate. The demand side saw a marginal increase in silicon wafer production [30][31]. Future Outlook - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the price may follow coking coal, but the long - term trend is downward [32][33]. - Polysilicon: Policy factors dominate, and there is a short - term callback drive. Consider positive spreads for PS2511/PS2512 and recommend selling hedging for upstream factories [32][34][35]. Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The futures prices of 2509 and 2511 contracts increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The basis changed from positive to negative [54]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased, and Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China grew [55]. - Demand: The new - energy vehicle market continued to recover, and the energy - storage bidding scale increased [55]. - Inventory: The total social inventory increased, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking [55]. Future Outlook - The shutdown of the Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. The futures price is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton. Consider reverse spreads and selling hedging [56][57][58].