烧碱：偏多对待，PVC：偏多对待PVC

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is weak and volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Caustic Soda: The current market shows rising production and inventory, with a weak structure. However, considering the cost - side support and the expected increase in demand during the peak season, especially the planned alumina capacity expansion in Guangxi at the end of the year, the market is expected to turn bullish later. It is recommended to go long on dips, engage in positive spreads for 10 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [5] - PVC: The industry's fundamentals have not significantly improved during the anti - involution process. With high production and inventory, and weak demand both domestically and in exports, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to go short on rallies, avoid participating in inter - period spreads, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 contract is strengthening, and the downside space of the 10 - 1 month spread is limited. The export market still provides support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][19] 3.1.2 Supply - The domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week is 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons is 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side has changed significantly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decent profit situation [40][44][45] 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profit. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production expansion can drive a new round of demand growth. The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have stable operations, and the water treatment and ternary precursor industries also have stable operations [76][82][93] 3.1.4 Balance Sheet - Assuming a 1 - million - ton caustic soda production capacity is put into operation in 2025, under different demand scenarios (weak, neutral, and optimistic), the supply - demand gap varies with different operating rates [102] 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating and strengthening, while the 9 - 1 month spread is oscillating weakly [106] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The PVC production capacity utilization rate this week is 79.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in the northwest from August to September in 2025. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation, increasing the supply pressure [111][113][114] - Demand: The real estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall operating rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are weaker year - on - year. The PVC export expectation is weakening, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 being 1.9605 million tons, and the monthly export volume decreasing by 27.61% month - on - month [123][129][138]