2015与2019年秋季，钢铁是如何限产的？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The steel industry often experiences administrative production restrictions in autumn due to prominent environmental issues in key regions. The execution of production restrictions was stricter in 2015 and 2019, with significant impacts on crude steel output and prices. The current round of restrictions is expected to have a lesser impact due to improved environmental standards among steel companies [1][4][7] Summary by Sections Production Restrictions Overview - In 2015, production restrictions were primarily concentrated in Hebei Province, requiring all local steel companies to reduce pollutant emissions by over 50%. The crude steel production growth rates in Hebei from July to October 2015 were 3.5%, -4.1%, -2.5%, and 2.2%, indicating a significant decline during the restriction period [5] - In 2019, the restrictions were based on the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's guidelines, with a broader focus on key regions including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. The restrictions led to a more significant reduction in crude steel output, estimated at 12.66 million tons, approximately 1.3% of national output [6] Market Dynamics - Recent market sentiment has fluctuated, with steel prices showing volatility. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 4.65% year-on-year but decreased by 0.42% month-on-month. Daily average transaction volume for construction steel rose slightly to 103,400 tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production decreased to 2.4032 million tons, while the overall steel production increased by 3.16% year-on-year and 0.59% month-on-month [3] Price Trends - Total steel inventory increased by 1.74% month-on-month but decreased by 21.67% year-on-year. The price of rebar in Shanghai fell to 3,330 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel rose to 3,440 CNY/ton [4] - The price of rebar saw a maximum increase of 5.7% in 2015 following the announcement of production restrictions, while in 2019, prices rose by 7.8% after the restrictions were implemented [5][6] Future Outlook - The upcoming 2025 event commemorating the victory in the Anti-Japanese War may lead to stricter air quality regulations in key regions. However, the environmental standards of most steel companies have improved significantly compared to previous rounds of restrictions [7] - The report suggests that the steel industry may benefit from a more favorable supply-demand balance due to the "anti-involution" policies, with potential investment opportunities in high-quality steel companies and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [26][27]