豆粕：震荡，关注美农报告、贸易磋商、天气，豆一：现货略偏弱，盘面震荡

Group 1: Market Performance - Last week (August 4 - August 8), the US soybean futures price fluctuated. The November contract of the US soybean main force had a weekly decline of 0.15%, and the December contract of the US soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.64% [1]. - Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. The m2509 contract of the soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.16%, and the a2509 contract of the soybean No. 1 main force had a weekly decline of 0.32% [1]. Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean sales increased week - on - week and were higher than expected. In the week ending July 31, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 690,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 63%. The cumulative 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 47.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current and next - year net sales of US soybeans were about 1.02 million tons, higher than the expected 300,000 - 800,000 tons [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and met expectations. As of the week ending August 4, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, compared with 70% the previous week and 68% the same period last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crush margin: As of the week ending August 8, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crush margin increased week - on - week [1]. - The weather forecast for the US soybean main production areas: In mid - August (August 13 - August 21), precipitation in the US soybean main production areas will decrease and the temperature will be higher, which has a slightly positive impact [1]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Sales volume: The soybean meal sales volume increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills in China was about 510,000 tons, compared with about 300,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Pick - up volume: The soybean meal pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 194,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Basis: The soybean meal basis increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 112 yuan/ton, compared with about - 123 yuan/ton the previous week [3]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory was basically flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean meal inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 920,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [3]. - Crushing volume: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic soybean weekly crushing volume was about 2.18 million tons, and it is expected to be about 2.37 million tons next week [3]. Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Prices: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area were slightly weaker, while those in other areas were stable. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in some areas in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week [4]. - New soybean growth: The new soybeans in the Northeast production area are growing well, and the willingness to hold prices has weakened. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in many places if there is no extreme weather later [4]. - State - reserve auction: The one - way auction of state - reserve soybeans started, and the first auction ended in failure. On August 8, 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans were planned to be auctioned at a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold [4]. - Demand in the sales area: The demand in the sales area is flat. Although the Beginning of Autumn has passed, the temperature in many places is still high, and it will take time for the terminal demand for soybean products to recover [4]. Group 5: Market Forecast - Next week (August 11 - August 15), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures are expected to fluctuate. Domestic soybean meal will be slightly stronger due to concerns about the trade war. For domestic soybeans, the spot price in the Northeast production area is slightly weaker, and the new soybeans are growing well [5].