中泰期货鸡蛋市场周度报告-20250810

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot price of eggs dropped significantly, with a still high supply level. Under hot and humid weather, all sectors actively sold their goods, but market demand was average, and downstream procurement was cautious. After continuous price drops, the industry's willingness to purchase increased over the weekend, and the spot price stopped falling, showing a slow upward trend in the short term. As of August 9, the average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin. Egg prices were close to the feed cost line, and the industry was in deep losses [2][4]. - In August, the egg supply level remained high, and high egg prices would prompt cold - storage eggs to enter the market. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so there were no bright spots in consumption in the first and middle of August, and there was no strong driving factor for egg prices. However, egg consumption might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [4]. - The egg - laying hen production capacity was still large. Recently, the number of old hen culls did not increase significantly, and the new hen laying level was high. The in - production inventory of laying hens might continue to increase month - on - month. Also, there were many cold - storage eggs and old hen molting this year, shifting some supply pressure to the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. Therefore, the supply pressure during this year's Mid - Autumn Festival was expected to be large, and the increase in egg prices before the festival was limited [4]. - Last week, futures contracts continued to fall, and the main 09 contract hit a record low. However, the fundamental situation of loose egg supply and demand did not change significantly. As the industry entered the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, the market was divided on the height of egg price increases. Due to the large supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival this year, the expected increase was limited. The 09 contract had some post - festival attributes, and its valuation was low, so the value of bottom - fishing was not high. In terms of operation, it was recommended to maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds, pay attention to light - position operation and timely profit - taking, and be cautious about bottom - fishing [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - Price: The average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin this week, down 0.27 yuan (-9.0%) and 0.21 yuan (-6.7%) respectively from last week. The red - egg to powder - egg price difference was 0.15 yuan per jin, up 0.06 yuan (64.8%) from last week [2][4]. - Basis: The 10 - contract basis was - 482 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 238 yuan (-97.5%) from last week, and the 09 - contract basis was - 583 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 132 yuan (-29.3%) from last week [4]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was - 175 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan (52.2%) from last week, and the 9 - 10 spread was 101 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 106 yuan (-51.2%) from last week. It was recommended to gradually take profits on the previous reverse - spread combination [4]. 2. Egg Supply - Side Data - Laying Situation: In August, the laying level was expected to continue to increase as the chicks hatched in March (corresponding to laying in August) had both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the number of chicks replenished. The market remained in a situation where large - sized eggs were in short supply while small - sized eggs were in surplus [2]. - Culling Situation: The culling price of old hens was 5.60 yuan per jin, down 0.25 yuan (-4.27%) from last week. The culling volume was 13.71 million feathers, up 700,000 feathers (5.4%) from last week. The culling age was 506 days, down 1 day (-0.2%) from last week [2]. - Inventory: The in - production inventory was 1.356 billion feathers, up 0.016 billion feathers (1.2%) from last month, and the egg - laying rate was 90.15%, down 0.83 percentage points (-0.91%) from the previous half - month. The production inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.11 days (12.0%) from last week, and the circulation inventory was 1.19 days, up 0.15 days (14.4%) from last week [2]. - Replenishment: The price of laying - hen chicks was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 0.05 yuan (-1.5%) from last week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 68%, unchanged from last week. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.98 million feathers, down 770,000 feathers (-1.9%) from last month [2]. 3. Laying - Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Cost: The feed cost of eggs was 2.74 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.4%) from last week. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.20 yuan per jin, up 0.05 yuan (1.5%) from last week. The cost of raising a hen was 33.42 yuan per hen, up 0.09 yuan (0.3%) from last week [2]. - Profit: The comprehensive breeding profit was - 0.51 yuan per jin, down 0.36 yuan (-241.1%) from last week [2]. 4. Consumption - Side Data - Sales Volume: The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 7,528.5 tons, down 368.6 tons (-4.7%) from last week. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 581.2 tons, down 14.76 tons (-2.5%) from last week [2]. - Consumption Outlook: High - temperature and high - humidity weather was unfavorable for consumption, and terminal market demand was average. Dealers and food processing enterprises were cautious about purchasing eggs. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so egg consumption was expected to be hard to improve effectively in the first and middle of August. However, it might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [2][4].