中原期货期权策略周报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed strong performance from August 4th - 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. Despite potential short - term adjustments, confidence in hitting new highs within the year should be maintained [3]. - Different varieties have different price trends and investment suggestions. For example, aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation, while lithium carbonate prices may be volatile due to the uncertainty of mine production [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Options - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this week, with daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion. Different index options have different performance in terms of K - line indicators, basis, trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on relevant varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on volatility [2]. Stock Index - From August 4th - 8th, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11% on the weekly K - line. Looking ahead to August 11th - 15th, economic data releases and mid - year report disclosures may affect market sentiment. Investment should focus on IF and IM, and look for low - buying opportunities in IC [3]. Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors such as domestic export growth, US tariff policies, and Fed personnel changes are at play. Fundamentally, supply increases and the off - season of consumption lead to a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot prices are 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, and futures prices have fallen. Due to the uncertainty of the production status of the Jianxiawo lithium mine, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. If the mine shuts down, the price center may rise significantly. Investment strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - This week, coal production and inventory decreased. Supply disruptions are still expected, but downstream acceptance of high prices has declined. Coke has started the sixth round of price increases, and prices are expected to remain relatively strong and fluctuate at high levels [4]. Urea - The current daily production is high, and supply pressure is expected to increase in August. Demand from agricultural top - dressing has ended, and compound fertilizer production has inventory pressure. Futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, with support around 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The production of the five major steel products increased while demand decreased, and inventory growth slightly expanded. Steel prices are expected to have limited downward space and still have upward drivers [4]. Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices fell and then stabilized. This week, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. Pigs - Last week, pig spot prices fell. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with a range - bound trend [5]. Sugar - Domestic and international sugar prices have declined. With the expected shutdown of some northern sugar refineries and potential shortages in Brazilian shipments and domestic arrivals, the 01 contract may repair some of the discount [5]. Cotton - Cotton prices have declined. In the short term, there may be a small technical rebound, with support at 13,350 yuan/ton. The market has a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in 2025, and demand is under pressure [5][6].