南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250810）：寻一浅滩，静等风来-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol (MEG) prices are expected to fluctuate within a range as the supply - demand balance remains stable with no obvious drivers. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost - end, and the processing fee on the disk should be operated within a range [3][4]. - For PX - TA, the near - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, mainly following cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic games. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices as the PX profit has recovered from a low level while the TA processing fee continues to decline [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - Inventory: The East China port inventory decreased to 51.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 2 tons [3]. - Device: Some domestic and overseas devices have undergone maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment operations. The total load has dropped to 68.4% (- 0.6%), with coal - based MEG load rising to 75.14% (+ 0.14%) [3]. - Profit: The raw material cost changes have led to a significant compression of coal - based MEG profits, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has strengthened slightly and remained at a low level [3]. - Demand: The load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, but downstream demand is still weak. The subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season, and the load of some products is expected to increase [4]. PX - TA - PX: Some PX devices have increased their loads, and the supply is expected to increase in August. The PX profit has been significantly repaired [6]. - PTA: PTA devices have reduced their loads and carried out maintenance, and the processing fee has continued to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased [7]. - Demand: Similar to MEG, the load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, downstream demand is weak, and subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season [7]. Polyester - Price and Profit: The prices of polyester products have generally declined, and the profits of some products have changed. The processing fee of bottle chips has been repaired [13]. - Load and Production: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 88.8% (+ 0.7%), and the production of some products has changed [13]. - Inventory and Sales: The inventory of some polyester products has increased, and the sales volume has decreased [13]. Device Information - MEG Device: Multiple domestic and overseas MEG devices are in various states such as maintenance, startup, and shutdown [19]. - PX Device: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance or shutdown, and some are expected to restart soon [21]. - PTA Device: Some PTA devices are in the process of maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment [22]. Production and Supply Plan - PX, PTA, and MEG: There are production and supply plans for different periods from 2024 to 2027, with expected increases in production capacity [23]. - Polyester: There are also production plans for different polyester products in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 485 tons [24]. Market Data Charts - PX: Multiple charts show the price, inventory, load, and other data of PX, reflecting its market trends and seasonal characteristics [25][28][30][32]. - PTA: Various charts display the price, inventory, load, and other data of PTA, showing its market trends and seasonal patterns [74][77][79]. - Polyester: Charts present the price, load, production, sales, inventory, and other data of polyester products, reflecting the market situation and seasonal characteristics [107][108][110][113][115]. - MEG: Charts show the price, profit, load, inventory, and other data of MEG, demonstrating its market trends and seasonal features [168][169][171].