南华锡周报：小幅上升，震荡为主-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight increase during the week and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The price resilience reflects the characteristics of relatively high supply concentration and relatively scattered downstream demand in the tin market. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. The expected weekly operating range is between 262,000 - 269,000 yuan per ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - The Shanghai tin main futures contract slightly increased during the week, closing at 267,000 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of 400 yuan per ton on the Shanghai Metal Exchange. The SHFE inventory remained stable at around 7,800 tons, while the LME inventory slightly decreased to 1,710 tons. The tin import loss widened, and the 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable [1]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - According to Antaike's statistics, the total output of refined tin from 18 domestic smelters in July 2025 was 17,899 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. In the first half of 2025, domestic sample enterprises produced 122,000 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. Regionally, production in the Southwest, East, and Central China increased month - on - month by 3.5%, 6.7%, and 53.2% respectively, while production in South and North China decreased by 17.1% and 42.9% respectively. Year - on - year, production in the Southwest and South China increased by 24.9% and 61.6% respectively, while production in the East, Central, and North China decreased by 4.7%, 17.2%, and 50.0% respectively. Since July, the processing fee for 40 - degree tin concentrate in the mainstream domestic market has remained stable at 10,000 - 10,500 yuan per ton [2]. 3.3. Tin Futures Disk Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 268,060 | 2,840 | 1.07% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,605 | 390 | 1.17% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.22 | - 2.71% | [3] 3.4. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 16,411.96 | - 2,111.91 | 14.77% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5. Tin Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Warehouse Receipts: Total | Tons | 7,469 | 183 | 2.51% | | Shanghai Tin Inventory | Tons | 7,805 | 134 | 1.75% | | LME Tin Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 1,390 | - 25 | - 1.77% | | LME Tin Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 320 | - 215 | - 40.19% | | LME Tin Inventory | Tons | 1,710 | - 240 | - 12.31% | | Social Inventory | Tons | 9,644 | - 110 | - 1.13% | [10][12] 3.6. Tin Spot Data (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - Ferrous Tin Ingot | Yuan/ton | 268,000 | 3,400 | 1.28% | | 1 Tin Premium | Yuan/ton | 400 | - 100 | - 20% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 256,000 | 3,400 | 1.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 260,000 | 3,400 | 1.33% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 173,750 | 1,500 | 0.87% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 181,750 | 2,000 | 1.11% | | Lead - Free Solder | Yuan/ton | 274,250 | 3,500 | 1.29% | [11]