南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - Spot Market: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - Macro and News: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - Supply - Side: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - New Energy: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - Ferronickel: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - Nickel Disk Weekly: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - Nickel Spot Price: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - Nickel Industry Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].