光大证券晨会速递-20250811

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core inflation trend continues to rise in July, influenced by the "old-for-new" policy driving up appliance prices and price wars in the automotive sector, but overall readings remain weak due to last year's high base and current excess supply of live pigs [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a narrowing decline month-on-month, linked to rising international commodity prices and the effects of "anti-involution" policies, indicating a need for patience in addressing industrial product deflation amid weak demand [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The current market may have entered a phase of oscillating upward movement, with strong performance observed, but a potential formation of a phase high point is noted, requiring attention to whether the market can break through this point [3] - Domestic markets are expected to maintain strong performance due to the accumulation of favorable internal and external factors, including a weak U.S. labor market and proactive domestic policies supporting asset prices [4] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for public REITs showed a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the weighted REITs index closing at 142.49 and a weekly return of -0.44% [5] - As of July 31, 2025, the total number of public REITs in China reached 70, with a total issuance scale of 182.06 billion yuan, indicating a fluctuating price trend in the secondary market [6] Group 4: Industry Research - In the coal mining sector, recent policies such as "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" have positively impacted coal price expectations, suggesting significant upside potential for coal stocks [16] - The rare earth industry is expected to benefit from favorable pricing trends, with supply tightening and demand maintaining growth, particularly for companies focused on rare earth production [17] - The copper industry is experiencing inventory increases, but tight supply conditions are expected to support price increases in the future, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [18] Group 5: Company Research - Changshu Bank reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 13.5%, indicating strong performance and effective cost control [24] - Jerry Corporation achieved a 39.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant order growth and an upward revision of profit forecasts for the coming years [25] - Rongbai Technology's revenue decreased by 9.28% in H1 2025 due to impairments and new business investments, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company is positioned for future growth in solid-state battery technology [26]