市场担忧巴西产量下降，白糖短期保持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - Ex - market Quotes: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - Spot Prices: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - Price Spreads: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - Import Prices: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - Profit Space: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - General Information: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - Exchange Membership: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].