Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Price and Position Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Information: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price Information: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - Soda Ash: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].
黑色建材日报-20250811
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-11 01:21