煤焦早报：焦煤上游去库放缓，关注上方抛压，警惕回调风险-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao Coal - Sideways [1] - Coke - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of tariffs has risen again. Although the extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs for another 90 days is likely to be implemented, there are still some variables. With the approaching delivery of the near - month contract, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [4]. - For Jiao Coal, the mine - end production continues to decline, but the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants has increased. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream has slowed down. For Coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, and further price increases depend on whether downstream steel products can raise prices [4]. - From the perspective of steel profit distribution in the industrial chain, Jiao Coal is relatively overvalued compared to downstream steel products. In the short term, with the implementation of steel mill production restrictions in the north, the raw material trend may be weaker than that of steel products again. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01/JM01 lightly and beware of callback risks [5]. Summary by Directory Jiao Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.89% (-2.42), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 36.22% (+1.19). The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27) [2]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 245.66 million tons (-2.6), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 288.11 million tons (+2.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 808.66 million tons (+4.87), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 832.75 million tons (-11.31), and the port inventory is 277.34 million tons (-4.77) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1,227 yuan/ton (-2.5), the basis is -57 yuan/ton (+2.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -157.5 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.09% (-0.15), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4032 million tons (-0.39) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 44.63 million tons (-1.89), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 619.28 million tons (-7.41), and the port inventory is 218.15 million tons (+3.05) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract is 1,653.5 yuan/ton (-14), the basis is -73 yuan/ton (+14), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -80.5 yuan/ton (-4). The sixth round of price increase has started [3].