宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions, causing steel prices to face adjustment pressure [2]. - The steel price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of real - world contradictions and steel prices under adjustment pressure. Also, there are explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, spot prices remained stable with average trading volume. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan had less - than - expected impact. The supply and demand of rebar changed little, with an increase in the weekly output of rebar due to the resumption of production by construction steel mills and good profit per ton, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand improved with an increase in high - frequency indicators, the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement during the off - season is questionable. With the implementation of parade - related production restrictions, supply disturbances are weakening. In the situation of both increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not substantially improved, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong performance of coking coal and coke [3].