股指期货：多头格局下，跟踪变量变化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index having five consecutive positive days and reaching a phased high on Friday. The market's structural trend remains, and the previously mentioned potential negative factors did not occur, so the market continued to rise in a volatile manner. Overseas, the US Nasdaq index hit a record high on Friday [1]. - Although the micro - trading structure has deteriorated due to the continuous market rise, the reversal of the market trend mainly depends on the change in fundamentals. Currently, the probability of negative factors emerging is low, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend without significant disturbances, but there will be adjustment pressure if negative news increases [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indexes rose. The US Nasdaq index rose 3.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - All major domestic indexes rose last week. The CSI 1000 index had the largest increase of 14.8%, followed by the ChiNext Index with a 9.0% increase [10]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the materials industry had the largest increase of 5.64%, while the pharmaceutical industry fell 1.08%. In the CSI 500 index, the energy industry had the largest increase of 4.32%, and the information industry fell 0.05% [11]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM2508 futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock index futures contracts, and also had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [13][15][19]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 1st, the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.41 times, the CSI 300 index was 13.11 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.25 times, the CSI 500 index was 30.33 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 41.17 times [24][25]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The number of newly established equity - biased funds and new investors in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [28]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - Trend - following Strategy: Adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 main contracts are 3974 - 4179 points, 2715 - 2841 points, 6110 - 6520 points, and 6572 - 7015 points respectively [3]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4].