国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - Macro & Industry News: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - Trend Intensity: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - Macro & Industry News: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - Macro & Industry News: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - Macro & Industry News: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - Fundamental Data: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - Macro & Industry News: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - Trend Intensity: 0 [21]