国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and the steel price is fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi has been implemented, and the price is running strongly [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel a. Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 74,864, a decrease of 21,747 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 86,671, an increase of 1,172 from T - 1 [4]. - Industrial Chain: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,150, down 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 919, unchanged from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, up 50 from T - 1 [4]. b. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 tons of metal [6][7]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [7]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate a. Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 76,640, up 4,720 from T - 1; the trading volume was 145,134, a decrease of 64,511 from T - 1; the open interest was 149,489, a decrease of 11,062 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 76,960, up 4,660 from T - 1; the trading volume was 895,609, an increase of 128,940 from T - 1; the open interest was 320,706, an increase of 30,874 from T - 1 [12]. - Industrial Chain: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900, up 800 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800, up 800 from T - 1. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777, up 20 from T - 1 [12]. b. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day [13]. - CATL's Jiaxiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight and has no short - term resumption plan [13]. - The Australian government will inject 50 million Australian dollars (about 32.5 million US dollars) into Liontown Resources to accelerate its underground mining transformation [14]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [14].