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工业硅、多晶硅日评:高位整理-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 01:31

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the disk, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will remain at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. Continuous attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1] - Since the end of June, driven by the expectation of supply - side reform and the increase in spot prices, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has weakened, it still fluctuates, and the price remains at a high level with large market fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.64% to 8,710 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of non - oxygen - blown 553 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,250 yuan/ton, and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] - The average prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming were 9,250 yuan/ton, 9,300 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,500 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] - The average prices of 421 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 10,000 yuan/ton, 9,750 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton, and 10,100 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may face pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, on August 7, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 11.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.9 million tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot), a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.36% to 50,790 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 11 million tons, and the output in August will increase to about 13 million tons month - on - month [1] - On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, and the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased. Recently, due to the expectation of a polysilicon price increase, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the market demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install capacity in the first half of the year, and the terminal market remains weak [1] Other Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has decided to add "Gorns" brand of Xinjiang Gorns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and "Qiya Group" brand of Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. as registered brands for polysilicon futures. The new registered brands are applicable to contracts PS2511 and later [1] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged on the previous trading day [1]