南华原油市场周报：油价创7月以来新低，等待新驱动出现-20250811

Report Title - "South China Crude Oil Market Weekly Report - Oil Prices Hit New Low Since July, Awaiting New Drivers" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fell continuously, hitting a new low since July. The trading logic revolved around the weak fundamentals and the decline of risk premium. The fundamentals were mixed. Bullish factors included the decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors were the high possibility of a summit between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin and the increasing likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market reacted weakly to bullish factors, possibly due to the weakening support of peak - season demand. As the seasonal demand weakened, the risk of supply surplus increased, limiting the upside potential of oil prices and increasing the downside risk. There was a lack of substantial positive news in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia would be implemented [2] Market Trends - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of light crude oil for September. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 premium in August. The OSP for the US was at a $4.2 - per - barrel premium, and for Northwest Europe, it was at a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [4] - The discount on Russian crude oil export prices widened. Due to the pressure from the US and the EU on Russian oil buyers, the demand was hit, and the price of Russia's main oil exports to India had a discount. State - owned Indian refineries were considering suspending imports of Russian oil, while private enterprises were still buying but at a slower pace. The price of crude oil in the Ural region was more than $5 per barrel cheaper than the North Sea crude oil price index, compared with almost zero difference two weeks ago [4] - Indian companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decline. An industry insider said that Indian companies would continue to import Russian oil as long as the deals were commercially beneficial [4] EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.591 million barrels and a previous increase of 7.698 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, higher than the expected 95.2% and the previous 95.4% [6] CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 851,451 contracts, a decrease of 96,463 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest was 2,045,252 contracts, an increase of 2,569 contracts. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 170,087 contracts, a decrease of 25,973 contracts, and the open interest was 186,677 contracts, an increase of 493 contracts. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 464,152 contracts, an increase of 72,474 contracts, and the open interest was 1,589,665 contracts, a decrease of 16,391 contracts [7]