美银：The Flow Show-Gold-Binger

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies, while expressing caution towards equities and bonds, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment, with a notable increase in global equity allocation from a net 4% overweight to over 25% overweight, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rates and earnings per share (EPS) as the primary drivers for risk assets, suggesting that other factors are secondary [13]. - The report notes that the US dollar is in a bear market, with expectations of a revaluation of gold reserves by central banks to alleviate domestic debt burdens, which could lead to a bullish outlook for gold in the coming decade [13][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Investor probability of an economic hard landing has fallen to 5% or below, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [14]. - The report indicates a consensus among clients that lower rates will lead to higher stock prices, with a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [14]. Market Performance - The report details the performance of various asset classes year-to-date, with gold at 30.3%, bitcoin at 25.5%, and stocks at 12.6%, while cash and commodities lag significantly [1]. - The report notes that the Russian ruble has appreciated by 42%, making it the best-performing currency against the US dollar in 2025 [2][15]. Investment Flows - There has been a significant inflow of $106.7 billion into cash, marking the largest inflow since January 2025, alongside $28.5 billion into bonds, indicating a cautious approach among investors [11][40]. - The report highlights that private clients have been buying utilities and bank loans while selling technology and healthcare stocks, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [12][46]. Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the concentration of returns in US stocks, particularly in technology, is expected to continue until credit spreads widen, which may signal a shift in market dynamics [4][20]. - The report also notes that defense and tech stocks are seen as relative losers in the current geopolitical climate, particularly in the context of the Middle East [2][4].