新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-11）-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High - level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High - level oscillation [3] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidation [4] - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Palm oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Soybean meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Weak - side oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [6] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [8] - MEG: Wait - and - see [8] - PR: Wait - and - see [8] - PF: Wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the black industry, short - term steel industry growth expectations still exist. There are opportunities in the contract operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand. In the financial market, the market has rebounded continuously, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly and long positions in Treasury bonds lightly. For precious metals, the logic driving the gold price increase has not completely reversed, and short - term factors may cause fluctuations. In the agricultural and light industrial products markets, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. Supply increases slightly, and steel mills' production drive is strong. There are production - reduction expectations in the later period. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Coal mine over - production inspections tighten supply, and transportation is disrupted. The market is in a slightly tight supply - demand state, and prices are likely to rise [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Tangshan's independent steel - rolling enterprises' production restrictions are beneficial to finished products. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - Glass: The market's speculation sentiment cools down, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly. It is in the adjustment stage [2]. - Soda ash: In the adjustment stage, with the market's trading logic returning to the fundamentals [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market has rebounded, and risk appetite has improved. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3]. - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates have rebounded, and Treasury bond prices have fallen. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - Gold and silver: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing. The logic of the gold price increase has not reversed. Short - term factors such as employment data and tariff policies affect the price. Pay attention to the latest CPI data [3][4]. Agricultural and Light Industrial Products Markets - Pulp: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [4]. - Logs: Demand has increased slightly, supply pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - Oils and fats: Supported by raw material costs, external markets, and demand recovery, they are expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to weather and production - sales conditions [4]. - Meal products: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and prices are under pressure. In the long term, there are some supporting factors. They are expected to oscillate strongly [6]. - Live pigs: Supply is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to decline slightly [6]. - Rubber: The supply - demand gap has narrowed. With the improvement of supply - side factors, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [6][8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: These products are in a state of wait - and - see, with their prices mainly affected by cost and supply - demand changes [8][12].