铁矿周报：关注限产影响，铁矿震荡偏弱-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and weak. The supply side remains stable overall, with mainstream mines entering the seasonal off - season for shipments and non - mainstream mines having high recent shipments. The demand side shows that last week's hot metal output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. In the medium term, the impact of the northern military parade production restrictions should be noted. The cumulative steel exports from January to July were 67.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, continuously contributing to the growth [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3213 | 10 | 0.31 | 9240311 | 2947936 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3428 | 27 | 0.79 | 3118646 | 1428587 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | 7.0 | 0.89 | 869369 | 335365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1227.0 | 134.5 | 12.31 | 16090961 | 915031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1653.5 | 68.5 | 4.32 | 230503 | 53400 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Demand Side: Last week, the hot metal output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.54 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, a 0.15 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 3.07 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 63.21 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.62 million tons year - on - year. In the medium term, the impact of the northern military parade production restrictions should be noted [1][4]. - Supply Side: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week and was at a medium level in the same period of the past three years. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 30.618 million tons, a decrease of 1.391 million tons from the previous week. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 25.322 million tons, a decrease of 2.237 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 142.6727 million tons, an increase of 0.4526 million tons from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.3645 million tons, an increase of 0.1854 million tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - China Shenhua launched a large - scale asset restructuring involving 13 companies under the National Energy Group. On the evening of August 1st, China Shenhua announced that it had received a notice from its controlling shareholder, the National Energy Group, about planning major matters. It is initially considered that the company will issue shares and pay cash to purchase coal, pit - mouth coal - fired power, and coal - to - oil, coal - to - gas, and coal - chemical - related assets held by the National Energy Group and raise supporting funds [10]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization". The opinions adhere to classified policies, support and control, promote the industry to move towards the mid - high end, and prevent "involution - style" competition. They support mining enterprises to increase reserves and production of important minerals and improve the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources under the premise of complying with national industrial policies [10]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 104.623 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 1.325 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. From January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - According to customs statistics, in July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Among them, exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. In the first seven months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, basis trends, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects, which visually display the market situation of the iron and steel industry [8][11][13].