LPG：短期弱势震荡，丙烯：供需收紧，价格存一定支撑

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends, while propylene's supply - demand situation is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral outlook for LPG and a slightly positive outlook for propylene [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: - PG2509 closed at 3,774 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.28% and a night - session close of 3,775 with a 0.03% increase. - PG2510 closed at 4,252 yesterday with a 0.91% decline and a night - session close of 4,257 with a 0.12% increase. - PL2601 closed at 6,451 yesterday with a 0.45% decline and a night - session close of 6,463 with a 0.19% increase. - PL2602 closed at 6,502 yesterday with a 0.35% decline and a night - session close of 6,510 with a 0.12% increase [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 98,990, an increase of 23,479 from the previous day, and the position was 108,631, an increase of 2,869. - For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 30,262, an increase of 2,357 from the previous day, and the position was 90,216, an increase of 2,753. - For PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,187, an increase of 69 from the previous day, and the position was 4,747, an increase of 213. - For PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 49, an increase of 37 from the previous day, and the position was 924, a decrease of 38 [1]. - Price Spreads: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 566 yesterday, up from 527 the previous day. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG09 contract was 576 yesterday, up from 517 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 151 yesterday, up from - 205 the previous day. - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day. - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day [1]. - Key Industrial Chain Data: - The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8%, up from 72.6% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 66.6%, down from 67.8%. - The alkylation operating rate was 50.0%, up from 48.8% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On August 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for September's Saudi CP was 518 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 488 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton. For October, the expected price of propane was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 502 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton [9]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times yet to be determined [10]. - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [11].