沥青：跟随原油震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly following crude oil [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,511 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,515 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume was 36,284 lots with an increase of 576 lots, and the open interest was 54,003 lots with a decrease of 6,576 lots. For BU2510, the yesterday's closing price was 3,478 yuan/ton with a 1.42% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,484 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 157,320 lots with an increase of 1,399 lots, and the open interest was 221,612 lots with an increase of 10,056 lots [1] - Spot Data: The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 78,170 lots with an increase of 1,520 lots. The basis (Shandong - 09) was 249 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged. The Shandong wholesale price was 3,760 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, both unchanged [1] - Industry Data: As of August 7th, the refinery utilization rate was 34.33%, down 0.07% from August 4th, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, down 0.20% from August 4th [1] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] Market News - From July 30th to August 5th, 2025, the total shipments of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers were 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipments decreased due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipments increased due to high - load production and good shipping after improved weather [14] - From July 31st to August 6th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt manufacturers was 31.7%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residual oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [14]