生猪：现货弱势，维持反套

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Futures Prices: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - Spreads: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]