甲醇：窄幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term methanol market presents a narrow - range fluctuation pattern. The willingness to short at the fundamental valuation support level of methanol is not strong. This is due to the support of the "anti - involution" policy on commodity valuations and the neutral fundamentals of methanol with expected port inventory accumulation and stable inland prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of methanol was 2,383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,388 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 299,310 lots, an increase of 7,809 lots; the open interest was 407,074 lots, a decrease of 29,603 lots. The basis was - 3, an increase of 3; the spread between MA09 - MA01 was - 92, an increase of 17 [2]. - Spot Market: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,385 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.2. Inventory Situation - As of August 6, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.49%. The port inventory increased significantly this week. The arrival and unloading speed of ships accelerated after the lifting of restrictions, with 238,000 tons of foreign vessels unloaded. Consumption in Zhejiang weakened due to olefin plant shutdowns, while in South China ports, inventory also continued to accumulate [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].