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合成橡胶:基本面有支撑,估值区间运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-11 01:55
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - Spot Market: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - Production: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - Inventory: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]