棉花：延续震荡走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The cotton market continues to show a volatile trend. The domestic cotton spot trading is sluggish, the cotton - textile industry shows mixed performance, and the ICE cotton futures in the US rebounded after a decline. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25% and a night - session price of 13,825 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,605 yuan/ton with a 0.51% daily decline and a night - session price of 19,715 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. The ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.36 cents/pound with a 0.84% decline [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2601 was 181,994 lots, a decrease of 14,812 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 743,288 lots, a decrease of 4,927 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 5,708 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,252, a decrease of 77, and the effective forecast was 330, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 83, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 88 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 160 yuan/ton, with a 5 - yuan increase from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB, the cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different basis ranges for cotton sales [2]. - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market has improved slightly compared to the previous period, with downstream demand - based procurement. The overall performance is still average. The full - cotton greige fabric market is generally dull, with some improvements in local orders [2]. - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on August 12 [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].