投资策略：结合盈利预期看各行业估值高低

Group 1 - The report evaluates the current valuation of the A-share market using the PE (FY) metric, indicating that the overall A-share valuation has entered an overheated zone, with a PE (FY) exceeding the mean plus one standard deviation, reaching a historical percentile of 83.1% [1][16] - The non-financial A-share sector's PE (FY) remains within the mean plus or minus one standard deviation, with a historical percentile of 74.6%, suggesting a relatively reasonable valuation [1][16] - Industries identified as having high valuations based on profit expectations include real estate development, ground weaponry, plastics, coke, and other home appliances [2][18] Group 2 - Defensive investment strategies suggest selecting industries with the lowest valuation levels, such as liquor, oil service engineering, precious metals, non-liquor products, and seasoning fermentation products [2][18] - A balanced approach recommends choosing industries with valuations close to historical averages, including wind power equipment, power grid equipment, communication services, chemical raw materials, and automotive parts [2][18] Group 3 - The report constructs industry portfolios based on valuation characteristics, indicating that high-valuation industry portfolios have an annualized excess return of 0.39% from 2015 to the present, with a monthly win rate of 50.86% [3][26] - Low-valuation industry portfolios show an annualized excess return of -2.63% and a monthly win rate of 45.69%, highlighting the need to be cautious of "value traps" when investing in these sectors [3][26] - Portfolios with reasonable valuations yield an annualized excess return of 2.52% and a monthly win rate of 53.45%, indicating that industries close to historical valuation averages can generate excess returns [3][26] Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a volatile week, reaching a new high but showing a mixed performance, with significant contributions from advanced manufacturing sectors such as defense and robotics [2][32] - The overall A-share index saw a comprehensive increase, with micro-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 index leading the performance, while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices lagged [5][36] - The report notes that the current A-share equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.14%, reflecting a marginal recovery in market risk appetite [2][32]