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反内卷情绪发酵,工业硅低位反弹
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 02:11

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon rebounded from its low level. The main reasons were the continuous fermentation of anti - involution sentiment in China, the elimination of excess production capacity in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, and the entry into a stage of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which was beneficial to the industry's development prospects. Additionally, China's trade data in July was impressive, with minimal impact from tariffs. The supply side did not show significant expansion, while the demand side faced various challenges. It is expected that the component shipments in August will shrink significantly, and the industrial silicon spot market declined slightly. Technically, the futures price is expected to enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47%. The prices of various spot products such as通氧 553,不通氧 553, 421, 3303, and有机硅 DMC decreased, while the price of多晶硅致密料 increased by 6.82%. The industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.7 tons, an increase of 1.30% [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% (in US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4%, and the "new three" green and low - carbon products increased by 14.9% [7]. - Supply - demand aspect: As of August 8th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 83,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The overall furnace - opening rate in the three major producing areas rose slightly to 33.9%. The demand side faced challenges such as limited downstream acceptance of price increases by polysilicon enterprises, difficulty in covering costs in the silicon wafer market, high supply - side pressure in the photovoltaic cell market, and low downstream acceptance in the component market. It is expected that component shipments in August will shrink significantly [8]. - Inventory aspect: As of August 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 547,000 tons. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of warehouse receipts decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [9]. Industry News - On August 1st, 2025, the US Department of Commerce launched a second anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on products imported from Taiwan, China. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called on relevant units to provide opinions on the "Price Law Amendment Draft (Exposure Draft)". Guosheng Securities believes that in the context of anti - involution, the price of polysilicon is expected to return above the industry cost price, and attention should be paid to the price repair opportunities in the downstream industrial chain [11][12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, and prices of related products over different time periods [14][17][19].