中泰国际每日晨讯-20250811

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.4% to close at 24,858 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing 1.2% to 5,460 points. The average daily trading volume decreased by 22.1% week-on-week to over 226.5 billion HKD, while net inflow from the Stock Connect was 21.7 billion HKD. All 12 major sectors in the Hong Kong stock market saw gains, with the materials sector surging 11.0% and the healthcare sector rising only 0.1%, the lowest performer [1]. Earnings Expectations - Current earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks remain robust, with projected earnings growth rates of 2.7% and 8.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The upstream resources sector benefits from anti-involution policies, coupled with stabilization in the Chinese bond market supporting earnings upgrades. However, short-term valuations have significantly recovered, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE returning to mid-range levels of 2018-2019, leading to a high-level consolidation phase in the market [1]. Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw a counter-trend increase last week, with new energy vehicle stocks like Li Auto and NIO rising 1%-3%. Dongfeng Motor surged 22.8% due to domestic anti-involution policies and potential state-owned enterprise restructuring news, outperforming its peers [3]. Industry Dynamics - The environmental, photovoltaic, wind power, natural gas, and electric equipment sectors have shown relative outperformance against the market, with average leads of 1.0%, 2.2%, 0.2%, 17.0%, and 2.2% percentage points, respectively, as of July 31. Conversely, the thermal power, nuclear power, and water supply sectors lagged behind by 0.6%, 6.1%, and 0.5% percentage points, respectively [4]. Power Generation Sector - The thermal power sector is expected to be impacted by rising coal prices, with July coal prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline. The seasonal increase in coal demand has led to a month-on-month rise in prices, while coal inventories at major ports have decreased [5]. Electric Equipment Sector - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and an expected capacity of 60-70 GW, is anticipated to significantly boost the national hydropower capacity. However, the long construction period may limit short-term profitability for related electric equipment manufacturers, who may face challenges in passing on rising costs to investors [6]. Photovoltaic Sector - As of July 30, the average price of polysilicon rose to 4.94 USD/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1%. In contrast, the average price of photovoltaic modules decreased by 22.4% year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand needs to strengthen to confirm the price increases in polysilicon [7]. Stock Recommendations - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) is positioned to benefit from the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with a projected 95.0% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025. Hong Kong and China Gas (1083 HK) expects moderate growth in natural gas sales, with a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for FY25. Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038 HK) is stable in its operations across public utilities in the UK and Australia/New Zealand, also projecting a 4.8% dividend yield for FY25 [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The healthcare sector has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising 22.8% last month, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by nearly 20 percentage points. Policy support for innovative drug development and successful overseas collaborations for Chinese pharmaceutical companies have contributed to this growth [10]. Policy Developments - The government plans to establish a new directory for innovative drugs and support the use of medical insurance data for drug development, which is expected to enhance the sales of high-priced innovative drugs and accelerate research and development processes [11]. Drug Procurement Policy - The latest drug procurement policy is expected to trend towards moderation, allowing medical institutions to select brands for procurement, which may benefit high-quality products. The new rules aim to ensure that the lowest bids are reasonable and not below cost, thus maintaining the quality of procured drugs [12]. Key Individual Stocks - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) is projected to achieve double-digit growth in product sales revenue for 2025, bolstered by a significant milestone payment from Merck. Haijia Medical (6078 HK) is expected to benefit from the easing of government policies regarding medical insurance, which may improve its operating environment [13].