英大证券晨会纪要-20250811

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs but failing to maintain those gains, indicating a need for time and space to digest recent movements [3][4][5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable divergence between indices, particularly a stronger Shanghai index compared to weaker Shenzhen and ChiNext indices, reflecting internal market discrepancies [4][20] - Trading volume has decreased, with a total turnover of approximately 1.7 trillion, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for chasing higher prices, which may hinder the ability to initiate a new upward trend [4][20] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as cement, engineering machinery, and hydropower have shown strong rebounds, while AI application sectors have collectively declined, negatively impacting market sentiment [3][19] - The military industry has seen significant gains, with a notable increase in stock prices, supported by government policies and geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for further growth [11][12] - The robotics sector has also experienced substantial growth, with a 60% increase in related stocks since early January, although a recent pullback suggests caution is warranted [12] - Precious metals have risen due to factors such as the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions, which have driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [14] - The semiconductor sector remains a focal point for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by government support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [16] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high certainty in performance and reasonable valuations, particularly those benefiting from policy support or industry trends [5][21] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with structural opportunities, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have risen significantly without strong fundamental backing [5][21] - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a "slow bull" trend, with structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock-picking skills and timing [5][21]