锌周报：弱美元及LME去库，内外锌价弱反弹-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]