宏观周报（8月第2周）：PPI低于预期显示物价回升难度仍大-20250811

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, rising 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, supported by a low base and uncertainty over August tariffs[3] - July PPI fell 3.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, indicating challenges in price recovery despite rising high-frequency data and PMI[3] - Core CPI rose to 0.8% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend from the previous value, suggesting better-than-expected inflation performance[3] Group 2: Market Trends - The equity market saw a volume contraction with an average transaction amount of 1.6964 trillion yuan, down 113.2 billion yuan from the previous week[3] - The yield curve steepened, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates showing volatility, reflecting a mixed outlook for the bond market[3] - The U.S. stock market rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, S&P 500 up 2.43%, and Nasdaq up 3.87%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.29%[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and External Factors - The People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan in reverse repos, injecting medium to long-term liquidity into the market, contributing to a decline in short-term rates[3] - The probability of a U.S. rate cut in September rose to 87% due to weak employment data and aggressive White House stance, impacting inflation expectations[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, reinforcing expectations of capital inflows from overseas[3]