中辉期货日刊-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, L, PP, PVC, LPG, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, ethylene glycol, urea, propylene [1][2] - Bearish: PX, PTA, methanol, asphalt [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center continues to move down. The oil price is at the end of the peak season. With the gradual expansion of production by OPEC+, the pressure of oversupply in crude oil is increasing, and the oil price has a large downward pressure, but the decline space is gradually narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil drilling around $60 [1][5]. - LPG: The valuation is low, the position has risen to a recent high, and the rebound momentum has increased. Although the cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the downstream chemical demand is fair [1]. - L: The spot price has risen continuously, and the basis has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased marginally, but the agricultural film peak season is coming, and the far - month contract has anti - decline characteristics [1]. - PP: The warehouse receipts have decreased slightly from a high level, and the commercial total inventory has continued to accumulate. The upstream maintains high maintenance, and the domestic demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. The downstream start - up rate has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - PVC: The fundamentals are difficult to improve, the futures and spot prices have declined simultaneously, and the basis has strengthened. The upstream start - up rate has increased, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - PX: The supply - side changes are not significant, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity has increased. The tight balance expectation of supply and demand has been relaxed, and the PX inventory has decreased but is still at a high level [1][34]. - PTA: The recent device maintenance intensity has increased, and the start - up load has decreased significantly. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future. The demand - side is generally weak, and the start - up of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is in the seasonal off - season [1][38]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared with the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the seasonal off - season, and the terminal orders are generally low. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in August, and the inventory is generally low, which supports the disk price [1][42]. - Glass: The industry profit has slightly recovered, the production capacity has slightly increased, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, the market wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the enterprise inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [2]. - Soda Ash: The industry pattern has not improved significantly. The overall supply side continues to be at a high level, the demand side mostly continues with rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has accumulated again and the absolute quantity is high [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply and inventory in Shandong are relatively abundant. The terminal alumina industry's supply and demand have turned loose, and the demand for caustic soda is low. The non - aluminum terminal has rigid demand, and the consumption of caustic soda is limited. The overall situation is oversupply [2]. - Methanol: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas methanol device load has increased, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The demand has weakened, the coastal MTO external procurement device start - up load has continued to decline significantly, and the traditional downstream start - up has decreased [2][59]. - Urea: The urea device start - up load is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure will increase. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is generally weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost side has certain support [2][63]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The supply - side pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term is in the consumption peak season, but the demand in the north has decreased due to precipitation, and the medium - to - long - term price is under pressure [2][68]. - Propylene: The Shandong spot price has continuously increased, and the basis has strengthened. The PDH cost support has weakened, the PDH and MTO start - up have increased marginally, but the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has continued to accumulate for five weeks, remaining at a high level compared with the same period [2][73]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: On August 8, WTI remained flat, Brent rose 0.24%, and SC fell 1.57%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC were $63.88/barrel, $66.59/barrel, and 496.4 yuan/barrel respectively [3][4]. - Basic Logic: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually increasing. The oil price still has room for compression, but as the price drops, the support below is gradually strengthening. In the medium - to - long - term, it may still be pressed to around $60 [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: After the short - position profit - taking, you can temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [7]. LPG - Market Review: On August 8, the PG main contract closed at 3803 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared with the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4500 (-20) yuan/ton, 4403 (-3) yuan/ton, and 4380 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the self - fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently, increasing the support below [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly open a long position on a trial basis. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7290 yuan/ton. The North China main basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Basic Logic: The spot price has continuously increased, and the basis has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased marginally, but the agricultural film peak season is coming, and the far - month contract has anti - decline characteristics [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually take profit on short positions at low prices. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [16]. PP - Market Review: The PP2509 closed at 7062 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan/ton [19][20]. - Basic Logic: The warehouse receipts have decreased slightly from a high level, and the commercial total inventory has continued to accumulate. The upstream maintains high maintenance, and the domestic demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. The downstream start - up rate has increased for two consecutive weeks [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually take profit on short positions at low prices [23]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closed at 5046 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [26][27]. - Basic Logic: The fundamentals are difficult to improve, the futures and spot prices have declined simultaneously, and the basis has strengthened. The upstream start - up rate has increased, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [29]. PX - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, the PX09 contract closed at 6726 (-30) yuan/ton, the PX9 - 1 spread was 50 (+4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 149 (-2.4) yuan/ton [32][33]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side changes are not significant, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity has increased. The tight balance expectation of supply and demand has been relaxed, and the PX inventory has decreased but is still at a high level [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, pay attention to high - short opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6690 - 6800] [35]. PTA - Market Review: On August 8, the PTA price in East China was 4670 (-15) yuan/ton, the TA09 closed at 4684 (-4) yuan/ton, the TA9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+18) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 14 (-11) yuan/ton [36][37]. - Basic Logic: The PTA processing fee is generally low, and the supply - side devices have significantly reduced their loads. The demand - side is generally weak, and the start - up of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is in the seasonal off - season [38]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, pay attention to high - short opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4720] [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4456 (-19) yuan/ton, the EG09 closed at 4384 (-12) yuan/ton, the EG9 - 1 spread was - 38 (-4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 72 (-7) yuan/ton [40][41]. - Basic Logic: The domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still low compared with the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are in the seasonal off - season, and the terminal orders are generally low. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in August, and the inventory is generally low, which supports the disk price [42]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - short opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4420] [43]. Glass - Market Review: The spot market quotation continued to decline, the disk slightly declined, the Hubei basis widened, and the warehouse receipts increased [45][46]. - Basic Logic: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the commodity market sentiment is cautious. The start - up rate has increased, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, the market wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the enterprise inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [48]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The heavy - soda spot quotation declined, the disk slightly declined, the basis negative value widened, the warehouse receipts increased, and the forecast increased [50][51]. - Basic Logic: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The overall production has slightly decreased. The supply has slightly increased this week, the terminal has rigid demand for picking up goods, and the alkali plant inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory [52]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait patiently for the callback to be in place. Temporarily wait and see or be cautiously bearish [52]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: The liquid - caustic spot quotation declined, the disk declined, the center of gravity moved down, the main basis narrowed, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [55][56]. - Basic Logic: The supply and inventory in Shandong are relatively abundant. The terminal alumina industry's supply and demand have turned loose, and the demand for caustic soda is low. The non - aluminum terminal has rigid demand, and the consumption of caustic soda is limited. The overall situation is oversupply, and the liquid - caustic price is expected to maintain a weak fluctuation [57]. - Strategy Recommendation: Not provided in the report. Methanol - Market Review: On August 8, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2393 (-3) yuan/ton, the methanol main 09 contract closed at