关税扰动出现，金价波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a continuous rebound. Weak US employment and services PMI data supported Fed rate cuts, increasing market expectations for a September rate cut. Trump's unexpected tariff increase and potential Fed chair change added to market uncertainty, boosting investor risk aversion and driving up precious metal prices [4][7]. - On Friday, the COMEX December gold futures contract briefly hit a record high of $3534 before falling back, influenced by news of possible US tariffs on imported gold. The market is focused on the White House's upcoming executive order regarding gold bar import tariffs [4][7]. - The US may impose country - specific import tariffs on widely - traded gold bars, which could severely impact the global gold supply chain. Switzerland, as the world's largest gold refining and transit center, would be significantly affected if the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - The market is currently focused on the Trump administration's stance on gold bar import tariffs in the executive order. Gold price volatility is expected to intensify in the near term, and technically, international gold prices are more likely to face short - term pressure after Friday's pull - back [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 787.80 | 17.08 | 2.22 | 220321 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 783.27 | 7.72 | 1.00 | 33164 | 207932 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3458.20 | 42.20 | 1.24 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9278 | 360 | 4.04 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9249 | 250 | 2.78 | 347688 | 3526850 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.51 | 1.41 | 3.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Market uncertainty increased due to potential Fed rate cuts, tariff hikes, and possible Fed chair change, leading to a rise in precious metal prices last week [4][7]. - The possible US gold import tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, especially affecting Switzerland [4]. - Gold price volatility is expected to intensify, and short - term pressure on international gold prices is more likely [4][11]. - This week, key data to watch include US July CPI, PPI, and retail data, as well as the euro - zone's Q2 GDP quarter - on - quarter revised value. Events to monitor are US tariff policy changes, Fed officials' speeches, and the Russia - US summit [11]. 3. Important Data Information - US service sector expansion slowed in July, with the ISM services PMI at 50.1, lower than the previous month and expectations. The employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [12]. - US initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000 last week, and continued claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting a cooling labor market and strengthening rate - cut expectations [12]. - New York Fed's July survey showed that one - year inflation expectations rose from 3% to 3.1%, three - year inflation expectations remained at 3%, and five - year inflation expectations increased from 2.6% to 2.9%, the highest since February [12]. - The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal differences over inflation risks may signal an approaching end to consecutive rate cuts [12]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, with continuous increases for nine months [13]. - A US Customs and Border Protection document indicated that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars may be subject to tariffs [13]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings were 959.64 tons on August 8, 2025, up 6.56 tons from the previous week. iShare silver holdings were 14990.80 tons, down 65.87 tons from the previous week [14]. - For gold futures on August 5, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 292194, short positions were 55144, and net long positions were 237050, an increase of 13454 from the previous week. For silver futures, non - commercial long positions were 71234, short positions were 20576, and net long positions were 50658, a decrease of 8749 from the previous week [16].