氧化铝周报：短时震荡，长期供应有压力-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment trading driven by the "anti - involution" policy in the previous market has subsided, and the bullish sentiment in the alumina futures has significantly declined. The alumina is expected to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction between supply and demand is not significant. The cost of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be firm due to heavy rainfall and unimplemented mine resumption plans. The supply of domestic bauxite in the north may affect local alumina production, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises is stable [3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From August 1st to August 8th, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3162 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price rose from 3274 yuan/ton to 3275 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased by 42 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB decreased from 377 dollars/ton to 373 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 30.6 yuan/ton to - 31.34 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 19567 tons to 26182 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.25% last week, closing at 3170 yuan/ton, while the national weighted average price of the spot market was 3275 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the bauxite market, domestic ore prices were stable overall, with low mine operating rates in the north due to policy and flood season factors, and relatively stable southern ores. Imported ore prices are expected to be firm due to government actions and weather - related impacts in Guinea. On the supply side, there was a regional supply - demand mismatch in the alumina market. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [5][6] 3. Market Outlook - The event of the Guinea government taking over GAC's mining rights has little short - term impact on supply but indicates a long - term tightening of mining rights. The alumina production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the overall operating capacity increasing slightly. The electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable, and the procurement of raw materials is stable. The spot price is stable, and the futures bullish sentiment has declined. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3][9] 4. Industry News - On August 4th, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The AXIS mining area has not resumed production. A Shanxi alumina enterprise has reduced production due to ore issues, and a Guizhou enterprise's roasting furnace maintenance has ended [10] 5. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing the trends of alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, bauxite prices, and other related data [12][13][16]