中银晨会聚焦-20250811

Macro Economic Overview - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate continued to show positive growth, with a 6.1% increase from January to July, which is a 0.2 percentage point acceleration compared to the first half of the year. Imports decreased by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The trade surplus reached 683.51 billion USD [6][7] - In July, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points. Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year, showing a significant month-on-month acceleration of 3.0 percentage points. The trade surplus for July was 98.24 billion USD [6][7] Trade Partners Analysis - ASEAN and EU continued to support China's export growth in July, contributing 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to the year-on-year growth rate. In contrast, exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, which was a 5.5 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month [7][8] - The total import and export volume with ASEAN in July was 86.03 billion USD, with exports increasing by 16.6% year-on-year. The total with the EU was 74.55 billion USD, with exports rising by 9.2% year-on-year [7] Industry Performance - The overall activity in the A-share merger and acquisition market has decreased, with 50 disclosed merger events totaling 209.01 billion RMB from July 21 to August 3. This represents a decline in both the number and value of significant mergers compared to the previous period [10] - The real estate management and development, basic chemicals, electronic equipment, and textile sectors are highlighted as active areas for mergers and acquisitions [10] Key Stocks - The report lists key stocks for August, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [5]