宏观金银周报：?国内数据喜忧参半，海外降息预期增加，金银走高-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold and silver markets may experience strong oscillations. It's not advisable to chase short - term long positions in gold currently. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended in the range of [770 - 796]. Silver has a positive long - term upward trend with a recommended range of [9100 - 9360] [2][97][99] - Multiple factors such as weak US data, high interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical and trade frictions, and industrial demand structure support the rise of gold and silver prices [97] - In the long - term, central bank gold purchases, weakening US dollar credit, and inflation risks support the gold market [98] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic industrial products follow the "governance of low prices" logic - Domestic industrial products were active this week. The black variety sector rose significantly with the Wenhua Black Chain Commodity Index up over 4%. The new energy index rose 4.29%, and the precious metal index rose 2.91% [12][15] 2. US data dropped significantly, and interest - rate cut expectations are strong - US economic data showed weakness. Unemployment data worsened, and inflation expectations were affected by tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reached 100% probability, with an expected 2 - 3 rate cuts throughout the year [11][27][28] 3. China's import and export data are resilient, and attention is paid to the stabilization of the real estate market - From January to July, China's exports and imports showed positive trends. The export growth rate to non - US countries was strong, offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The real estate market in 30 large - and medium - sized cities had a significant decline in transactions, while the land transactions in 100 large - scale cities increased month - on - month [61][63][67] 4. Supported by multiple factors, gold and silver rose significantly this week - Affected by factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff changes, and central bank gold purchases, gold and silver prices rose. The net gold purchase volume of global central banks decreased in the second quarter of 2025, but 95% of central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 9 consecutive months. The supply - demand gap of silver in 2025 is expected to narrow [81][92][93]