市场回归基本面，胶价或震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. Although the terminal demand has improved recently, the supply side is under pressure due to better weather in major production areas and falling raw material prices. With the decline in social and Qingdao total inventories of natural rubber last week and the continuous rebound of the rubber futures market after releasing negative sentiment, it is expected that the market will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [8][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2509 to RU2601. The price of RU2601 ranged from 15,075 to 15,645 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending and volatile movement with a slight overall increase. As of the close on August 8, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,550 yuan/ton, up 390 points or 2.57% for the week [13]. Spot Price - As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton from the previous week [17][20]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded significantly compared to the previous week, mainly due to the change of the main contract last week. As of August 8, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,050 yuan/ton, an expansion of 960 yuan/ton from the previous week. Both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased compared to the previous week, with the domestic price showing a more obvious increase due to the contract change [24][27]. Important Market Information - Cambodia and Thailand reached a cease - fire agreement on August 7. - Morgan Chase expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and may announce a new Fed chair soon. He also plans to raise tariffs on India and announce drug and chip tariffs. - The US trade deficit in June decreased by 16% month - on - month. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, while the S&P Global services PMI reached a new high since December 2024. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook. - China's July CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, and PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. - From January to July, the total land acquisition amount of China's top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 34.3% year - on - year. - In July, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities increased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the average price of second - hand homes decreased by 0.77% month - on - month. - In July, China's passenger car retail sales reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. - The preliminary estimate of new - energy passenger car wholesale sales in July was 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. - In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. - In July, China's heavy - truck sales were about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 42%, and the cumulative sales from January to July increased by about 11% year - on - year [29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the production in Thailand increased significantly compared to the previous month, while that in China, Vietnam, and India increased slightly. The production in Indonesia decreased slightly, and that in Malaysia decreased marginally. The total production of major natural - rubber producing countries in June 2025 was 835,400 tons, an increase of 112,700 tons or 15.6% from the previous month. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic - rubber production was 703,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [41][46][50][54]. Demand - side Situation - As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.35%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 61%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5%. The monthly sales were 2.9045 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.83% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 97,864 units, a year - on - year increase of 37.14% and a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire - casing production was 102.749 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. - As of June 30, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 60.31 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% [56][59][62][68][71][76]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 8, 2025, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 176,280 tons, a decrease of 1,350 tons from the previous week. - As of August 3, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%, and that of light - colored rubber was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%, and the general - trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47% [85]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: It is currently the peak supply season for global natural rubber. The weather in Southeast Asian main production areas has improved, and rainfall in domestic production areas has decreased, leading to continuous new - rubber production and pressure on the supply side. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 634,000 tons, a 27.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly. The finished - product inventory of semi - steel tires was much higher than the same period last year, at a historical high, and the inventory - reduction speed of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, with a slight year - on - year increase. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. Heavy - truck sales in July decreased by 15% month - on - month but increased by 42% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber - tire exports were 4.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales in China were about 622,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 11%. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's natural - rubber social inventory and Qingdao total inventory both decreased slightly [86]. 后市展望 - After the weakening of the previous macro - impacts, the rubber market is gradually returning to its fundamentals. There is pressure on the supply side due to better weather in major production areas and increased imports in July. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased slightly, but the terminal automobile market showed some positive signs. With the decline in inventory, the rubber futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [87]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural - rubber futures will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, consider taking long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for band trading; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [89].