国信期货螺纹钢周报：供需边际转弱，螺纹窄幅震荡-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The policy boosts macro - market confidence, but there is still downward pressure on market prices. The supply pressure of steel products is gradually increasing, the inventory of building materials is accumulating, and the marginal support of supply and demand is weakening. The building materials' own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the futures price follows the raw material fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant production - restriction policies before September [74]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Threaded Steel Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - From January to June, national real - estate development investment was 4,665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Residential investment was 3,577 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%. Other real - estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also showed varying degrees of decline. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24,865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6%. In June 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The US plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, and the tariff executive order signed by the US president took effect on August 7. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October [7]. 1.2 Threaded Steel Main Contract Trend - There is no specific description of the trend in the provided content. 2. Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Interest Rate - On August 7, 2025, the SHIBOR was 1.5290, compared with 1.5570 on July 7, showing a month - on - month decrease in interest rates [15]. 2.2 Macro - Currency Price - There is no specific content provided. 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices of various commodities and their price changes over different periods are presented. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm threaded steel in Shanghai was 3,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.30%, a monthly increase of 4.67%, and a yearly increase of 5.00% [22]. 2.5 Threaded Steel Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of the threaded steel main contract on different dates is given. For example, on August 7, 2025, the futures main contract was 3231, the cheapest delivery product was 3350, and the basis was 119 [25]. 3. Threaded Steel Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - There is no specific content provided. 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - There is no specific content provided. 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - There is no specific content provided. 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - There is no specific content provided. 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - There is no specific content provided. 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - There is no specific content provided. 3.8 Steel Weekly Output - On August 8, 2025, the output of steel products (including threaded steel, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and medium - thick plate) was 783.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.11500897 and a month - on - month increase of 0.003742438. The weekly output of threaded steel was 221.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.047948451 and a year - on - year increase of 0.312329417 [46][51]. 3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory - On August 8, 2025, the steel mill's steel inventory was 492.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.11371604 and a month - on - month increase of 0.017419302 [54]. 3.11 Steel Social Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.13 Threaded Steel Social Inventory - There is no specific content provided. 3.14 Building Materials Transaction - There is no specific content provided. 3.15 Consumption Indication - Cement Price - There is no specific content provided. 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - There is no specific content provided. 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transaction - There is no specific content provided. 4. Future Outlook - The policy boosts market confidence, but the downward pressure on market prices persists. The supply of steel products is increasing, the inventory of building materials is accumulating, and the support of supply and demand is weakening. The building materials' futures price follows the raw material fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies before September [74].