铝周报：沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend [5][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, ranging from around 20,405 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,825 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures oscillated, with the contract price ranging from 2,551 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2现货分析 - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of August 8, 2025, the premium/discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3.3供需情况 - In July 2025, the total production capacity of alumina was 113 million tons, the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.75% [22] - As of August 7, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 31,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 16,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 15,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22] 3.4库存情况 - As of August 8, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.03% [27] - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 506,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous day [27] 3.5宏观面、基本面分析 - In July, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%. The production index and new order index in the manufacturing PMI were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, both lower than the previous month. Manufacturing production activities continued to expand, but market demand slowed down. Industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and computer and communication electronic equipment had active production and demand [4][36] - The operating rate of alumina plants continued to rise, the in - production capacity of alumina gradually increased, and the alumina inventory remained at a low level. The output of aluminum products increased year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased rapidly for several consecutive months. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased slightly, the LME aluminum inventory continued to rise, and the domestic implicit market inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly [4][36]