超长债周报：资金面保持宽松，30-10国债期限利差走阔-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly due to relatively loose funding, increased central bank repurchase operations, and successful issuance of new local bonds with higher yields than comparable old bonds [1][3][10][34]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained quite active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy showed resilience in June but with weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. With deflation risks still present, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][11]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of August 8, its spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation and deflation risks, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Factors included loose funding, increased central bank repurchase, and successful local bond issuance with higher yields on new bonds [1][10][34]. - Trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained active [1][3][10]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][3][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: The spread with the 10 - year treasury bond was 26BP as of August 8, at a low historical level. The domestic economy had resilience in June but weak domestic demand. The estimated June GDP growth was 5.2% year - on - year, up 0.1% from May. Social consumption and investment growth declined. With 7 - month CPI at 0.0% and PPI at - 3.6%, deflation risks persisted. The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the term spread protection is limited [2][11]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: The spread with the 20 - year treasury bond was 5BP as of August 8, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the variety spread protection is limited [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, 2025, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.5% (60,623 billion), local government bonds 67.5% (154,423 billion), etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion at 40.9% (93,594 billion) [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 4 - 8, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with a total of 1,400 billion issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased [18]. - By variety, treasury bonds were 820 billion, local government bonds 560 billion, etc. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for the largest share with 1,301 billion [18]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 553 billion. Ultra - long treasury bonds are 350 billion, ultra - long local government bonds 178 billion, etc. [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 11,190 billion, accounting for 13.5% of all bond turnovers. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26]. - By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds had a turnover of 9,170 billion, accounting for 43.3% of all treasury bond turnovers; ultra - long local bonds 1,798 billion, accounting for 56.7% of all local bond turnovers, etc. [26]. Yield - The bond market rebounded slightly last week. Yields of different types of ultra - long bonds changed. For example, in treasury bonds, 15 - year yields changed by - 1BP to 1.84%, etc. [34]. - For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 3BP to 1.97%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 4BP to 2.00% [35]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 26BP, up 2BP from the previous week, at the 10% quantile since 2010 [43]. - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week and remained at a low absolute level. The 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 5BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury bond spread was 11BP, with changes of 1BP and - 1BP respectively from the previous week, at the 7% quantile since 2010 [48]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.32 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The total trading volume was 602,000 lots (- 181,003 lots), and the open interest was 152,600 lots (- 8,080 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [50].