Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and government bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is suitable for range trading or observation, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, nickel is suggested to observe or short on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soda ash is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage [1][21]. - Cotton Spinning Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is expected to have range fluctuations, soybean meal is expected to have limited increases, and oils are at a high - level with an increasing risk of correction [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events, resulting in different trends for different varieties. For example, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's economic data, and trade policies all have an impact on the market [6][11]. - Most varieties are in a state of fluctuating operation, and investors should choose appropriate investment strategies according to the characteristics of each variety, such as range trading, short - long arbitrage, and buying on dips [1]. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - Index Futures: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and China's economic data, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Government Bonds: In the short term, the market lacks a clear trend, and the yield is at a neutral level, so it is expected to fluctuate [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and the short - term is expected to remain volatile. Investors can observe or conduct short - term trading [8]. - Iron Ore: Although the supply is increasing, considering the possible macro - benefits in the fourth quarter, the iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly and can be used as a long - leg in the short - other - black - varieties strategy [8][9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply is tight, and the coke market has mixed factors. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by factors such as China's economic improvement and low inventory, but facing the pressure of inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum: The bauxite supply is decreasing, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price falls [12][14]. - Nickel: With an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - Tin: The supply gap is improving, and the demand is in the off - season. It is suitable for range trading in the range of 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by the Fed's policies and trade policies, they are expected to fluctuate and are suitable for range trading [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply and uncertain export sustainability, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21][23]. - Caustic Soda: With high supply and stable demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550 [23][24]. - Styrene: With limited fundamental benefits and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [25][26]. - Rubber: With limited cost and supply support and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28]. - Urea: With supply and demand in a balanced state, it is suitable for range operation in the range of 1700 - 1830 [30]. - Methanol: With supply and demand stabilizing, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31][32]. - Polyolefins: With high supply pressure and low - season demand, they are expected to fluctuate in the range of L2509: 7200 - 7500 and PP2509: 6900 - 7200 [32][33]. - Soda Ash: It is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage due to the weak spot market and expected inventory accumulation [33][35]. Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic production expectations, they are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment [36][37]. - Apples and Jujubes: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, they are expected to fluctuate weakly [37][39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [40][42]. - Eggs: With high supply and uncertain demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [44][45]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there are supply gaps, and different contracts have different investment strategies [46][47]. - Oils: With expected negative reports and high inventory, there is an increasing risk of correction, but there are also some supporting factors. Different varieties have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [48][55].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250811
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-11 03:04