华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250811

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in the off - season with inventory accumulation, and the upward space is limited by the off - season demand pressure. Short - term support comes from the interest rate cut expectation. Focus on macro sentiment, downstream start - up, and the trend of inventory - consumption ratio [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, among 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production since January 5, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was at a high level. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut on the macro - level boosted the basic metals, while the US imposing tariffs on India and the India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement increased the funds' risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and steadily. The total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/ton, and the industry still had high profits. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month. The bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the total imported bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different aluminum product sectors have different operating rate trends. For example, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy continued to rise, the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable, the aluminum profile and aluminum foil operating rates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable [3]. - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were phased fluctuations in inventory data. In the off - season, high aluminum prices may further damage consumption, and the inventory will continue to accumulate in the short term [3].