中泰期货晨会纪要-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend and directional outlooks for various commodities, which can be inferred as implicit ratings: - Trend空头: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "Trend空头", but some commodities are in a "震荡偏空" (shaky and bearish) trend, including plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - 震荡偏空: Plastics, methanol, etc. [2] - 震荡偏多: Pesticides, caustic soda, etc. [2] - 趋势多头: No specific commodities mentioned as purely "趋势多头", but some commodities show strong upward - potential trends. Core Views - Macro - financial: For stock index futures, use short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies. For bond futures, consider the steepening strategy. [10][11] - Black commodities: Steel and ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. For ferroalloys, consider trading spreads. For soda ash and glass, short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. [14][16][17][18] - Non - ferrous and new materials: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, while alumina may repair its discount. Zinc prices will decline, and lithium carbonate prices will be strong. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will fluctuate. [21][22][24] - Agricultural products: For cotton, adopt a bearish strategy at high prices. For sugar, prices are under pressure but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. For eggs, sell on rebounds. For apples, use light - position positive arbitrage. For corn, near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted. For red dates, observe. For hogs, short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage. [28][31][32][34][36][37] - Energy and chemical: For crude oil, consider shorting at high prices. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Plastics will fluctuate weakly. Rubber may be slightly strong in the short term. Methanol will fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda can be bought at low prices. Asphalt follows oil prices. The polyester industry chain will be weak. LPG prices are likely to fall. Pulp and log prices need further observation. [39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][49] Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Short - term trend thinking, be cautious of volume increase with no price increase, and consider covered call strategies to increase returns. - Market situation: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to 3635.13 points, with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. July's foreign trade data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was slightly lower than expected. [10] Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider the steepening strategy in the short term. - Market logic: The current core trading logic in the bond market is loose liquidity, with DR001 at 1.3%, driving the strength of bonds with maturities below 10 years, but not affecting ultra - long - term bonds. [11] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Market view: From a policy perspective, subsequent policy efforts may be moderate. Seasonal demand is weak, but mid - term decline is limited. Supply is expected to remain strong, and prices are expected to fluctuate. [14][15] Coal and Coking - View: Double - coking prices may enter a high - level shock stage. Supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. [16] Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The double - silicon futures are in a reasonable range. Consider trading spreads or reverse spreads instead of shorting directly. [17] Soda Ash and Glass - View: Short soda ash at high prices and observe glass. Soda ash supply is high, and there is inventory pressure. Glass needs to digest speculative inventory. [18][19] Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: Demand is weak in the off - season, but price support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Alumina: The discount may be repaired, but it may also fluctuate weakly in the future due to supply pressure. [21] Zinc - View: Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices will decline due to increased supply and weak demand. [22] Lithium Carbonate - View: Due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi, the supply - demand gap will widen, and prices will be strong in the short term. [22][23] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: With polysilicon's resumption of production, the downward adjustment space is limited, and it will fluctuate. - Polysilicon: It will fluctuate widely, with policy expectations conflicting with fundamental oversupply. [24][26] Agricultural Products Cotton - View: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. Adopt a bearish strategy at high prices, considering both demand concerns and expected production increases. [28][29] Sugar - View: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected supply increases, but watch for low - absorption demand during holidays. [31][32] Eggs - View: Spot prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the increase may be limited. Sell on rebounds. [32][33] Apples - View: Use light - position positive arbitrage. Pay attention to the prices of early - maturing apples and new - season apples. [34] Corn - View: Near - month contracts will range - bound, and far - month contracts can be shorted based on cost logic. [34][35] Red Dates - View: Observe. Pay attention to production areas' weather and sales areas' prices. [36] Hogs - View: Short near - month contracts and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage due to supply pressure. [37][38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - View: OPEC+ is increasing supply, and demand is uncertain. Consider shorting at high prices. [39] Fuel Oil - View: Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, and the current supply - demand situation is complex. [40] Plastics - View: Polyolefins will fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options. [41] Rubber - View: It may be slightly strong in the short term. Consider short - term long positions with stop - losses. [42] Methanol - View: The market is in a stalemate, and prices will fluctuate weakly. Consider selling call options. [43] Caustic Soda - View: Adopt a long - at - low - prices strategy as the market no longer expects further price drops. [43][44] Asphalt - View: Asphalt follows oil prices, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - View: The industry chain will be weak due to poor raw material performance. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - View: LPG prices are likely to fall due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [46][47] Pulp - View: Observe port de - stocking and spot trading improvement. [48] Logs - View: Observe and consider hedging at high prices. [48] Urea - View: Urea prices will fluctuate weakly due to weak domestic demand. [48][49] Synthetic Rubber - View: It will fluctuate slightly. Consider the long NR - short BR arbitrage. [50]